Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Is it time to start sniffing around?

I see some comments wondering about whether it could be time to start looking for 'deals'

There is no doubt that there are deals surfacing. Look at Vancouver Price Drop to get some idea about where things are going. Of course there are good deals in the Sunshine Coast, OK and Whistler.

But what about Vancouver? Have we just started the correction or are we just having another dip, followed by a plateau and then up we go again.

Well it may help us to see just how high we went. Here's Larry's Average Price chart:


A technical analyst might say that there is good support at the $1 million level.  What then? Up from there or down further?

It all depends whether we start getting a negative loop. Lower prices and less sales leading to less construction, mortgage and Realtor employment  (10% of employment) leading to a drop in personal net worth and less spending on retail (another 7-8%) 

So you can see how quickly a drop can reinforce itself with negative feed-back. Any further weakness in commodities and it will multiplied.

San Diego which we are often compared to, took a while to roll over, but when it did it went south fast.


So before we dive into the market, we may want to see if this is the beginning of a bigger correction. Looking, however is good.


18 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. Nothing goes straight down and at some point fools will rush in bumping prices back up.

    I suspect the response from some quarters will be deafening as the boosters hail a recovery which will be the start of a movement taking the market to new highs.

    I look forward with eager anticipation to their glee.

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  3. F was on the lcd screen again yesterday over Europe. Europe is the biggest market for China, not the US, not Canada. If I read F's crystal ball right, we shall see more knee jerk reactions here. Already one fellow who bought 3 months ago, seeks advice on how much mortgage penalties and expenses will incur by selling his house NOW.

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  4. I passed by Moda Sales Booth at around 1:30pm. There was a crew video-tapping a long hair sales woman in black pants, black jacket, black vest over a white shirt. As she was facing sideway, I couldn't tell if she was the same one sweeping the sidewalk. Very impressive clientele if the buyers are lawyers. Black and white are the colors of all things funebre ... ahhh, worst than having a hospice in your backyard.

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  5. No SFH the last two days in West Van. Ham central.

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  6. For very specific parts of BC, I'd say it doesn't hurt to throw a few bugs into Realtors' ears about an offer 20% below the last market sale. Low chance of success, but you might save yourself a few years of waiting. And you'd still be overpaying, but not by that much.

    Not sure about Sunshine Coast, but parts of the interior are into that camp. Here's what one local blogger did almost 4 years ago to the day: http://housing-analysis.blogspot.ca/2008/08/mohican-buys-house.html

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  7. The top graph detached sales is a typical head and shoulders pattern. The current down leg will test support at $800K with maybe a small uptick then the next support looks like $400K

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  8. I agree with head and shoulders, but 400k ignores inflation and the modest gains in real income. I suspect long term support around 600k, keeping in mind that this is the average for all of Vancouver. Shacks in East Van could be 400k, because who will have the cash to make them livable?

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  9. I think we are getting ahead of ourselves. Lets see if we break $1 M first - which should be at least as big a media event as breaking it on the upside.

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  10. If you take a base line of $400,000 in 2003 and adjust housing prices at 4% for 10 years support would be at $600,000, as this would be the adjusted price for that time period.

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  11. Make that three days in a row with no SFH sales in West Vancouver. Eventually, picking stupid 'telephone number' prices have priced the market out.

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  12. One SFH sale in West Van today. 4 days. I sale.

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  13. No SFH houses sold today in West Van.

    This is getting serious. Four days, and one sale.

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  14. This site has several articles on buying lots and building SFHs for owners/investors in the LML and the US.
    This west side SFH, electrical boxes appeared ok on photo #43, page 5
    http://www.realfinder.com/?p=20894&page=5

    http://www.realfinder.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/43.jpg

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  15. The only house with horrible and messed up electrical work that I ever came across is just a stone throw away from Ontario St, on W 41st Ave. It is a concrete SFH built by a mainlander owner.

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  16. One more SFH West Van sale today. Two sales over 5 days.

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  17. Hong Kong apartment fetches record $61 million
    17 hours ago
    http://tinyurl.com/992cqtz

    Some months ago, a 99-year leasehold house on Sentosa Is (Singapore) sold for $39M. The seller was non other than the doctor who "billed a member of Brunei’s royal family $24.8 million for seven months of treatment".
    http://tinyurl.com/9n6xpdt

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